Statistical Comparisons of FoW & CD WWII rulesets

Across the game table I’m sure you’ve been part of or witnessed a conversation about something either being easy or hard in various rule systems. In particular around here there’s been some comparison going on between Flames of War and Command Decision, since there are a couple of us that play in more than one game group.

Here in Rochester we’ve played Command Decision for a long time. I was introduced to Command Decision III while it was being written. Our group was lucky enough to have some connection to Frank Chadwick and helped beta test the rules. We’ve also played Command Decision IV which is the current version. Command Decision is D10 based.

Over in LaCrosse they like to play Flames of War, which is currently in version 3. While I own version 1 and 2 of the Flames of War there just was never anyone around here to play against until I found the group over in LaCrosse. Flames of War is d6 based.

So let’s compare how easy or hard it is to do something in both CD as well as Flames of War. I’ll stick to middle of the road rated troops. In Flames of War that’s Trained Infantry. In Command Decision Regular or Experienced are middle of the road. There are 3 ratings in Flames of War, 6 in Command Decision.

I’m going to include CD III, CD IV and version 3 of Flames of War. CD IV went to a “save” system so CD III and CD IV are “different” and I think worth looking at.

Let’s start out by looking how easy for stationary infantry is to eliminate moving infantry out in the open. Next Infantry that’s dug in. Last tanks!

Flames of War – Inf vs Inf

A Rifle/MG stand rated trained firing at trained in the open has 4 in 6 chances to hit (that’s hitting on a 3, 4, 5, or 6 on a d6), 2 in 6 for the target to miss their save, so 8 in 36 or 22%. Just one successful hit eliminates a stand. A Rifle/MG stand that doesn’t move has a rate of fire of 2 so you’d have two chances.

Command Decision III – Inf vs Inf

Regular firing at Regular in the open depends on range band. 5/10/15 inches for short, medium or long. So picking average that would be 10 which is a 3 in 10 to cause one hit. A regular stand can take 2 hits, an experienced stand 3. So to eliminate, you’d need two 3 in 10 changes for a 9% chance to eliminate a stand. An infantry stand typically has a rate of fire of 1 but in the opportunity fire phase that increases to 2.

Command Decision IV – Inf vs Inf

Regular firing at Regular in the open again depends on the range band which changes to 6 and 12. Over 6 it’s a 3 in 10 chance to cause a hit otherwise 6 in 10 for something 6 inches or closer. On a hit a save is rolled and a stand is eliminated 4 in 10 or 3 in 10 depending on if Regular or Experience. Stationary stands in CDIV also get a +1 rate of fire for opportunity fire. So short range the chance to eliminate is ( 6/10 * 4/10 ) or 24% for regular or 18% if it’s experienced and at long range that drops to 3/10 * 4/10 12% for regular and 9% for experienced. Remember in opportunity you’d have 2 shots and thus two changes to eliminate.

Summary

CD IV and Flames of War turn out to be statistically quite similar and the same number of shots, while CD III essentially has a little longer range band but given that stands can take multiple hits infantry are harder to eliminate.

Indirect Artillery vs Inf

Flames of War – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

First you must range in and you have 4 in 6 chances to range in followed by two more rolls if you fail the first. Next you roll to hit, which is 3 in 6 changes to score a hit. You get one chance to hit Infantry out in the open no matter if they are moving or standing still. Then the Infantry has 2 in 6 changes to fail their save and thus be eliminated. Tallying that up, 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 = 11%

One artillery hit (regardless of a save) does pin the platoon the Infantry stand would be member of.

CD III – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

First you call fire, and with an observer that’s 7 in 10 you’ll get the fire mission. Against moving infantry you only have one chance to hit which is dictated by the HE factor of the gun. A 76 gun is a 4, a 105 a 5. So that’s either 4 in 10 or 5 in 10 to score a hit.

Tallying that up, 7/10 * 4/10 = 28% or 7/10 * 5/10 or 35% to score one hit. Same problem applies as before, you can only score one hit and you can’t eliminate a stand with one hit. If you want to score more than one hits, you need more artillery missions. A single hit doesn’t result in a pin, that’s part of a morale roll you resolve later.

CD IV – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

CD IV retains the HE factors as CD III but goes to a save system. The 7 in 10 is approximately correct for an observer calling in his own guns on a target. A 76 continues to be an HE4, a 105 a 5 and so on. Then you have the same system so either a 4 in 10 or 3 in 10 chances to eliminate the infantry stand depending if they are regular or experiences.

Tallying this up, that’s 7/10 * 4/10 * 3/10 = 8% to eliminate an experienced stand with a 76 gun. A 105 against a regular would be 7/10 * 5/10 * 4/10 = 14%

Dug in Infantry

What about the case that the Infantry you’re raining down artillery on is dug in and not in the open? In this case let’s look at trenches.

Flames of War – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

In Flames of war, Trenches would be called Bullet Proof cover. This introduces what is called a firepower roll at the end of the series. Firepower varies depending on the gun involved. A Russian 76 has a firepower of 6 meaning you need a 6 to eliminate the dug in stand, but a German 105 has a 4+ or 1 in 2 chance to eliminate a stand that has failed it’s save.

First you must range in and you have 4 in 6 chances to range in followed by two more rolls if you fail the first. Next you roll to hit, which is 3 in 6 changes to score a hit. You get one chance to hit Infantry out in the open no matter if they are moving or standing still. Then the Infantry has 2 in 6 changes to fail their save. Next is the firepower roll with 1 in 6 for a 76 or 1 in 2 for a 105. Tallying that up, 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 * 1/6 = 2% for a 76 gun. While a 105 would be 4/6 * 3/6 * 2/6 * 1/2 = 5%

CD III – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

CD adds a modifier for entrenchments, that’s -3 to the to hit roll. Going through the mechanics again you’d have…

First you call fire, and with an observer that’s 7 in 10 you’ll get the fire mission. Against moving infantry you only have one chance to hit which is dictated by the HE factor of the gun. A 76 gun is a 4, a 105 a 5 and then adjusted with a -3,  So that’s either 1 in 10 or 2 in 10 to score a hit.

Tallying that up, 7/10 * 1/10 = 7% or 7/10 * 2/10 or 14% to score one hit. Same problem applies as before, you can only score one hit and you can’t eliminate a stand with one hit. If you want to score more than one hits, you can converge your guns on the artillery missions, or use multiple artillery missions or in some cases take advantage of a higher rate of fire of some guns.

CD IV – Indirect Artillery vs Inf

CDIV follows the same mechanic for applying a modifier trenches. Trenches are hard cover for a -3.

Tallying this up, that’s 7/10 * 1/10 * 3/10 = 2% to eliminate an experienced stand with a 76 gun. A 105 against a regular would be 7/10 * 2/10 * 4/10 = 6%

Tanks!

Flames of War and Command Decision both have systems for armor values featuring an armor roll to see if you brew up an armored vehicle. Let’s look first at Tank vs Tank and then Artillery vs Tank.

With Tank vs Tank let’s compare a T-34 from 1942 to a Pz IV F2 with the Pz IV F2 shooting at the T-34.

Flames of War – Tank vs Tank

First it’s roll to hit, followed by armor save and then a firepower roll. There is only a normal or long range bands.

4/6 chances to hit a trained tank. The Anti-Tank of the F2’s gun is 11 and the front of a T34/42 is generally a 6, but increases to 7 at long range. The Soviet player would roll a d6 and needs to meet the antitank rating to escape, otherwise it’s a firepower roll for the German player to blow up the T34.

So that’s 4/6 *  4/6 * 4/6 = 30 % to eliminate the T34 at normal range or 4/6 * 1/2 * 4/6 =  22% to eliminate at long range.

CDIII – Tank vs Tank

CDIII has range bands based on the gun. 15/20/30/50 are the ranges bands with a 70%, 50%, 30% and 10% change for the bands. Next A 7,5,4 or 2 is added to your armor penetration roll in the case of a hit. A T34 has a frontal of 8 so at short range, you’d have a 9 in 10 chance to score at least one hit on the T34. In CD if you exceed the penetration roll by 4 or more, you score 2 hits, and thus this would eliminate a regular rated tank.

This works out to the following chances to eliminate a regular T34:

Close 7/10 * 6/10 = 42%

Medium 5/10 * 4/10 = 20%

Long 3/10 * 3/10 = 9%

Extreme 1/10 * 1/10 = 1%

CDIV – Tank vs Tank

CD IV uses the following range bands 6/12/18/48 for a 70%, 50%, 30% and 10% chances to hit with 11, 10 9 or 7 being added for penetration rolls with Armor Piercing ammo. The frontal armor on a T34 is an 8. To resolve if it is eliminate result, you roll a D10, add the penetration value but subtract your armor value.

Shooting at a regular tank that would be:

Close 7/10 * 7/10  = 49%

Medium 5/10 * 6/10 = 30%

Long 3/10 * 5/10 = 15%

Extreme 1/10 * 3/10 = 3%

Shooting at an experienced tank that would be:

Close 7/10 * 6/10  = 42%

Medium 5/10 * 5/10 = 25%

Long 3/10 * 4/10 = 12%

Extreme 1/10 * 2/10 = 2%

Artillery vs Tank

Last let’s look at artillery vs a tank and what it takes to eliminate.

Flames of War – Artillery vs Tank

In Flames of War the majority of tanks have a top armor of 1. Artillery to eliminate a tank uses an antitank value and than a firepower roll.

A 4 in 6 to call in the artillery, then 1 in 2 chance to score a hit followed by the firepower roll. A 1 in 6 for a 76 gun and a 1 in 2 for a 105 against a T34.

4/6 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 16% chance to eliminate a T34 with a 105

4/6 * 1/2 * 1/6 = 6% chance to eliminate a T34 with a 76.

CD III – Artillery vs Tank

CD III uses a class of a vehicle which gives you a negative modifier against the HE value of the gun. A 76 is an HE4, and a 105 would be HE5 with a T34 rated as a class V and is a -4 HE. Thus a 76 gun can not affect a T34, and a 105 only has a 1 in 10 chance excluding the call fire chance

For a 105 with an observer 7/10 * 1/10 = 7% chance to score one hit.

This requires more than one artillery mission to eliminate a moving tank.

CD IV – Artillery vs Tank

CD IV uses the same system  but then includes the save roll. Again a 76 can’t affect a T34 and a 105 only has a 1 in 10. The save roll is a 4 in 10 to eliminate a Regular rated T34 or a 3 in 10 Experienced T34.

For a 105 this would be 7/10 * 1/10 * 4/10 = 3% to eliminate a regular T34 tank.

Grand Summary

I’ve only looked at typical cases with average troops. Better troops certainly affects the outcome and changes the stats as does worse troop quality. The use of d6s and D10s to figure out the outcome seems to be about the same across the board except for Artillery vs Tanks in Flames of War where it seems to be pretty significantly easier to kills tanks with Artillery. Likewise statistically it is easier to kill tanks with tanks in CD but the range bands give more flavor and complexity to get to a result.

CD III in particular allows stands to take a number of hits based on quality of the troops. CD of course is modeling a platoon as a stand while Flames of War has a ~4 soldiers per stand. Likewise in Flames of War, a tank is a tank but in CD III that vehicle is actually ~5 vehicles so multiple hits is modeling combat effectiveness as losses occur.